March 9, 2013

WCC Semifinal Matchups



Conference tournaments can create upheaval in the sphere of college basketball.  A team who had zero chance of making the tournament can all of a sudden earn an automatic bid.  Or teams on the bubble can either make or break their case for earning an at large bid as well.  Coming into this weekend, two teams in the West Coast Conference were solidly on the bubble: Saint Mary’s College and BYU.  They each had different paths for making their case.  Saint Mary’s would likely earn an invitation to the Big Dance with a close loss to Gonzaga in the final, and BYU most likely needed to win the whole thing to earn their spot in the NCAA tournament. 

The four teams expected to vie for West Coast Conference Champions were Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, and Santa Clara.  The bracket was straightforward, and upsets were not really expected.  But this is college basketball, and in a year of chaos, the West Coast Conference would prove no different.  Today’s semi-final matchups are Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego.  Both Santa Clara and BYU lost yesterday, and both of their NCAA dreams were dashed in the process.


The most surprising turn of events in the tournament thus far is the play of Loyola Marymount.  The Lions finished the WCC regular season 1-15 and lost 14 straight games.  They were the lowest seed in the bracket, and yet they have won 3 consecutive games to make it to the semifinals. They defeated Portland 65-54 in the opening round, San Francisco 61-60 in overtime of round 2, and Santa Clara 60-58 in the Quarter Finals. 

I have already seen comments from fans saying that Loyola is finally playing up to their talent level…but let’s look at the facts.  Yes, they won three straight, but none (aside from Portland) were in a convincing fashion, and the stat lines speak for themselves:

Quarterfinals: 41.4% FG, 23.1% 3pt (3 threes), 52.9% free throws, 37 rebounds, 5 assists, 8 steals, 12 turnovers. Hamilton 13 points, Ireland 23.

Round 2: 37.7% FG, 25% 3pt (5 threes), 66.7% free throws, 42 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 9 turnovers. Hamilton 11 points, Ireland 16 points.

Round 1: 46.2% FG, 42.9 3pt (6 threes), 68% free throws, 30 rebounds, 14 assists, 14 steals, 11 turnovers.  Hamilton 21 points, Ireland 12 points.

So, should Gonzaga be fearful of the Lions?  Yes, LMU is fighting for their tournament lives and has absolutely nothing to lose.  On top of that, Gonzaga has a giant #1 on their backs for extra motivation for the Lions. They will play scrappy and they will probably play their best basketball all year tonight, on the backs of Anthony Ireland and Ashley Hamilton.  But, I don’t think Loyola’s best day would earn a win on Gonzaga’s worst day.  If Gonzaga is truly deserving of the #1 ranking in the country, we should easily handle Loyola Marymount.  Our talent far outclasses the Lions, but I applaud them for making it to the semifinals. And Gonzaga has something to prove as well.  We are ranked #1 for the first time in school history, and we want payback in the finals against St. Mary’s for taking away the West Coast Championship crown from us last year.  This is Gonzaga’s year and I expect a dominating win tonight.

The second half of the evening will feature a matchup between Saint Mary’s and San Diego.  San Diego had an easier path into this game, only needing to win two games to advance to the Semi Finals.  They beat BYU in a close matchup (72-69) with the play of Johnny Dee (25 points), Anderson (16 points, 6 assists), and Rancifer (15 points).  Manresa also helped out with 10 rebounds, but only 3 points.  And they beat Pepperdine in another close game (62-59) on Thursday evening. 

Quarterfinals: 43.4% FG, 38.1% 3pt (8 threes), 64.3% free throws, 35 rebounds, 14 assists, 7 steals, 12 turnovers

Round 2: 41.2% FG, 33.3% 3pt (6 threes), 63.6% free throws, 33 rebounds, 11 assists, 12 steals and 17 turnovers

San Diego can be a dangerous team, especially when Johnny Dee is playing well.  And they can shoot a good clip from beyond the arc, but I expect Saint Mary’s and Dellevadova to win this game.  They have more to lose.  They need one more shot at Gonzaga to make the NCAA tournament, and they want to defend the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship.  We wrestled away the regular season championship from their grasp this year and they will want one more chance to beat their rival on Monday.

I predict the Championship game on Monday will feature another Saint Mary’s/Gonzaga clash. 

No comments: