Conference tournaments can create upheaval in the sphere of
college basketball. A team who had zero
chance of making the tournament can all of a sudden earn an automatic bid. Or teams on the bubble can either make or
break their case for earning an at large bid as well. Coming into this weekend, two teams in the
West Coast Conference were solidly on the bubble: Saint Mary’s College and
BYU. They each had different paths for
making their case. Saint Mary’s would
likely earn an invitation to the Big Dance with a close loss to Gonzaga in the
final, and BYU most likely needed to win the whole thing to earn their spot in the
NCAA tournament.
The four teams expected to vie for West Coast Conference
Champions were Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, and Santa Clara. The bracket was straightforward, and upsets
were not really expected. But this is
college basketball, and in a year of chaos, the West Coast Conference would
prove no different. Today’s semi-final
matchups are Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego. Both Santa Clara and BYU lost yesterday, and
both of their NCAA dreams were dashed in the process.
The most surprising turn of events in the tournament thus
far is the play of Loyola Marymount. The
Lions finished the WCC regular season 1-15 and lost 14 straight games. They were the lowest seed in the bracket, and
yet they have won 3 consecutive games to make it to the semifinals. They
defeated Portland 65-54 in the opening round, San Francisco 61-60 in overtime
of round 2, and Santa Clara 60-58 in the Quarter Finals.
I have already seen comments from fans saying that Loyola is
finally playing up to their talent level…but let’s look at the facts. Yes, they won three straight, but none (aside
from Portland) were in a convincing fashion, and the stat lines speak for
themselves:
Quarterfinals: 41.4% FG, 23.1% 3pt (3 threes), 52.9% free
throws, 37 rebounds, 5 assists, 8 steals, 12 turnovers. Hamilton 13 points,
Ireland 23.
Round 2: 37.7% FG, 25% 3pt (5 threes), 66.7% free throws, 42
rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 9 turnovers. Hamilton 11 points, Ireland 16
points.
Round 1: 46.2% FG, 42.9 3pt (6 threes), 68% free throws, 30
rebounds, 14 assists, 14 steals, 11 turnovers.
Hamilton 21 points, Ireland 12 points.
So, should Gonzaga be fearful of the Lions? Yes, LMU is fighting for their tournament
lives and has absolutely nothing to lose.
On top of that, Gonzaga has a giant #1 on their backs for extra
motivation for the Lions. They will play scrappy and they will probably play
their best basketball all year tonight, on the backs of Anthony Ireland and
Ashley Hamilton. But, I don’t think
Loyola’s best day would earn a win on Gonzaga’s worst day. If Gonzaga is truly deserving of the #1
ranking in the country, we should easily handle Loyola Marymount. Our talent far outclasses the Lions, but I applaud
them for making it to the semifinals. And Gonzaga has something to prove as
well. We are ranked #1 for the first
time in school history, and we want payback in the finals against St. Mary’s
for taking away the West Coast Championship crown from us last year. This is Gonzaga’s year and I expect a
dominating win tonight.
The second half of the evening will feature a matchup
between Saint Mary’s and San Diego. San
Diego had an easier path into this game, only needing to win two games to
advance to the Semi Finals. They beat
BYU in a close matchup (72-69) with the play of Johnny Dee (25 points),
Anderson (16 points, 6 assists), and Rancifer (15 points). Manresa also helped out with 10 rebounds, but
only 3 points. And they beat Pepperdine
in another close game (62-59) on Thursday evening.
Quarterfinals: 43.4% FG, 38.1% 3pt (8 threes), 64.3% free
throws, 35 rebounds, 14 assists, 7 steals, 12 turnovers
Round 2: 41.2% FG, 33.3% 3pt (6 threes), 63.6% free throws,
33 rebounds, 11 assists, 12 steals and 17 turnovers
San Diego can be a dangerous team, especially when Johnny
Dee is playing well. And they can shoot
a good clip from beyond the arc, but I expect Saint Mary’s and Dellevadova to
win this game. They have more to lose. They need one more shot at Gonzaga to make
the NCAA tournament, and they want to defend the West Coast Conference
Tournament Championship. We wrestled
away the regular season championship from their grasp this year and they will
want one more chance to beat their rival on Monday.
I predict the Championship game on Monday will feature
another Saint Mary’s/Gonzaga clash.
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