Coach Brad Stevens, like clockwork, trots out a well coached, disciplined team that will try to beat you on their terms. They use great defense and a methodical offense to wear you down and force you into making bad decisions. The expectation is that this should be one of the tougher games the Zags have played this year. We are traveling to a hostile environment, the historic, almost Mecca like gem that is Hinkle Fieldhouse. Home of many Indiana State Basketball battles and one of my all-time favorite movies: Hoosiers. Truly one of the tougher environments in the country.
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The first thing you should know is that their leading scorer, Rotnei Clarke, is out. This is a huge blow to a team that has really benefited from Rotnei's big shots and ability to stretch the floor.They have a relatively small front-court that does not necessarily match up well with Gonzaga's bigs. 6-11 Center, Andrew Smith is probably their most seasoned player and should provide solid minutes against Kelly Olynyk, Elias Harris and co., but don't expect him to be able to exert his will on the inside. Ultimately this is a young but very talented Butler team that is set up to be successful in the long term. Expect to see solid minutes out of 6-4 wing Roosevelt Jones, who currently averages almost 10 points and 6 boards a game as a sophomore. Freshman 2-guard Kellen Dunham has come in and played very well in big games. Dunham could be the x-factor if he can get good looks on the perimeter, or he could turn in a performance like his 2-10 three point shooting night versus Richmond the other night.
My expectation for this game is that we will struggle with Butler's defense throughout much of the first half and have trouble finding our niche, but by the beginning of the 2nd half our depth will show through and we will start to pull away. If Rotnei Clarke was playing I would feel worse about our prospects in Indy, but without their big-time seasoned guard wreaking havoc on the perimeter this game seems much more mundane. Final score should be roughly Gonzaga 75, Butler 67.
3 comments:
I pretty much agree with you Josh.
I do think Butler is going to clog the middle in the early going and dare Pangos and Bell to shoot.
Don't look for long easy looks like Portland gave us -- Butler is a better defensive team than Portland -- especially on the perimeter.
I think this will be our finest hour.
Zags 77
Butler 68
The loss of Rotnei is going to hurt their perimeter defense. Go ahead and clog the paint. Pangos & Bell & Barham will go off on them.
I can't believe that Josh is going to BE at the game! WOWAZ!!~ Lucky dog. You be better be hoarse, lol.
GO ZAGS!!~
Have fun Josh! Bring a sarcastic sign so we can spot you in the crowd. Then again, I tried that at the BYU game last year and had no luck at all.
I think we'll win this one comfortably, but I'm incredibly nervous. Bill Simmons coined the "Ewing Theory" to explain why the Knicks got better without their star (Patrick Ewing, hence the name), and I'm worried we could see that here. Butler looked awful early in the season but they've improved and wrapped their offense around Clark's shooting. Without him, they have less firepower but, and this is important, we have less tape to prepare with. They can throw out some completely new sets that they've improvised in the past week or so that might take us by surprise.
My other concern is Andrew Smith. He is, in my opinion, the exact type of center I would dispatch to slow down KO. He's aggressive and strong, but moves his feet well and doesn't get caught in the air on pump fakes or up-and-unders. KO will have to be patient and try not to force his shot.
I thin a 75-69 type score is in order, with us pulling away in the second half. If we come out patient and move the ball around I think we can break their D... my concern is that we'll try to push things early and give them easy buckets in transition, when we should be forcing their weakened offense to earn their points 30 seconds at a time.
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