Illinois Team Preview

The Fighting Illini fired Coach Bruce Weber last year after a disastrous Big Ten campaign that shelled their chances at snagging an at-large NCAA tournament bid. They had talent too, and bring back several key players this year, making last year’s failure all the more galling. Their new coach, John Groce, has a reputation as a stellar recruiter and led Ohio University to the Sweet Sixteen last year. He knows the Midwest, and I think he’s a great fit in Champaign.

For this preview, I thought I would pick the brain of Tom Fornelli, editor of “The Champaign Room,” an Illini blog over at SBnation (link here). It’s a great blog, so give it a look if you have the time. I asked him a few questions about this year’s Illini team which he graciously answered, and I’ll post his responses after the jump.

The Illini bring back key pieces in Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson, Tyler Griffey, and Joe Bertrand off the bench, giving them a lot of scoring punch from the outside. Paul in particular has played incredibly well this year, giving them a strong backcourt that will challenge our talented but still relatively young backcourt stars. The major piece that is missing from last year’s team (who I’m sure you all remember) is Meyers Leonard, the 7 footer with a (at least against us) deft offensive touch. To replace him, Coach Groce is hoping that transfer Sam McLaurin will be able to replicate the form he showed at Coastal Carolina. Aside from him, size in the post is relatively thin, a factor that isn’t missed by Fornelli when he described his team to me.

Illinois is a dangerous team, and will have the most potent guard play of any team we have played so far. We tend to struggle with aggressive guards on both ends of the court, but I will be focusing on how we stay with Brandon Paul defensively and if we can properly defend the three point shot. A couple of our blowout wins would have been much closer if the opposing teams sank the open threes our defense surrendered (I’m looking at you, West Virginia), but that may have also been by design. We can’t leave Illinois any space on the perimeter, or they will burn us. That said, we have a decided advantage in the paint. Past Zag teams might not have been able to capitalize on that advantage, but I think this year’s squad is up to the challenge. Hopefully, our size will trump their senior-driven backcourt. After watching the WSU game, I think we can all see the damage that a couple hot-shooting guards can do. KO and Harris need to maintain their form, while Dower and Karnowski need to be aggressive (either by scoring or at least drawing fouls/double teams) and make an impact on the game.

Brandon Paul (3) squares up to shoot against Georgia Tech. He probably made it. Robert K. O'Daniell / AP

As promised, here are Tom Fornelli’s answers to my impossibly insightful and well written questions. They give you a far better picture of the Illini team than I could ever hope to:

Kurt: How has this Illini team surprised you? I feel like you were due for a slight regression after losing Leonard, but the talent on this team seems to have fought past that extremely well. Are there any players who took a bigger step forward than you expected?

Tom: Well I certainly wasn't expecting an 8-0 start to the season or a Maui title with North Carolina in the field, let alone to be ranked #13 in the AP so soon. My only goal for this season was for there to be a clear turnaround under John Groce and to see this team playing fun basketball and earn a tourney berth. At the moment, that all seems likely.  So, yeah, to say that in December is a big surprise.

I'm very happy with the way the seniors look so far. Everybody knows Brandon Paul can be great, but Tyler Griffey has been a huge part of our early success, and seems so much more confident. Then there's DJ Richardson doing what DJ Richardson does: draining threes.

Kurt: What do you think your team struggles with offensively and defensively? How would you attack your team on either end of the court?

Tom: Our struggles offensively and defensively are in the same area: the paint. Sam McLaurin has been a nice player coming in as a transfer, and you see potential in Nnanna Egwu, but the truth is the Illini just aren't strong enough in the post on offense or defense. Any team that has size down low is going to give Illinois a lot of problems this season. You wouldn't happen to know of any team with talented big men, would you?

Kurt: Who makes your team go? Who are the team's leaders (statistically or otherwise) that have been indispensable this year?

Tom: As Brandon Paul goes, so go the Illini. Brandon's filling the stat sheet every night, as he's averaging 18.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and a steal per game. More importantly, he's shooting 48% from the field and 42% from three. When his shot is falling consistently the Illini can hang with anybody. If he's having an off night, the rest of the team is going to struggle to make up for his production.

Other than Brandon I'd say the biggest spark for this team has been Joe Bertrand off the bench. In the win against Georgia Tech last week the Illini were trailing and struggling in the second half. Then Bertrand went on a 10-0 run of his own to put that game to bed. Also, guys like Tyler Griffey and Tracy Abrams have proved invaluable on certain nights.

Kurt: Any predictions for this year's big ten?

Tom: The Big Ten is one reason I'm not getting overly excited about Illinois' start. This is a team that started out 10-0 last season too, and, well, I don't want to talk about Big Ten play. The conference is really good. There are six teams currently in the AP Poll with three of them in the top ten. I do think Indiana is the best team in the conference as it's the most complete, but you never really know with Michigan State as the Spartans tend to not truly show up until January anyway.

As for Illinois, I'd be happy with the Illini going 9-9 in Big Ten play because that would almost certainly assure them of a tournament berth.