Game Preview: Baylor University Bears
Opponent: Baylor
Location: Gonzaga (McCarthey Athletic Center)
Date: December 28 @ 5pm PST/8pm EST
Our journey through the Big 12 conference continues this
weekend with two more teams on the horizon: Baylor on Friday night and Oklahoma
State for our annual New Year’s Eve showdown.
Gonzaga has already amassed three wins over Big 12
opponents: demolishing West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kansas State. The closest contest was vs. Kansas State, and
the Zags won that game by 16. Gonzaga’s
average winning margin over Big 12 opponents this season is 25 points. Now it
is time to take on Baylor for the last home game of 2012.
Historically, the Zags have come on top in each of the three
matchups vs. Baylor. We last played this
team in 2010, winning 65-60. Baylor is
riding a 3 game winning streak coming in to tomorrow’s game, though their
strength of schedule is poor (Lamar, USC Upstate, and WCC foe BYU).
Baylor is 8-3 this season and has been remarkably
inconsistent. They showed flashes of
brilliance by beating then #8 ranked Kentucky at Rupp Arena (Baylor’s lone away
game thus far) and ending UK’s 55 game home win streak. Yet, they were beaten in close contests by
College of Charlestown (63-59), Colorado (60-58), and Northwestern
(74-70).
So which team will come to play? Let’s take a deeper look into the 2012-2013
Baylor Team:
8-3 Overall
Rankings:
AP Top 25:
-
Not Ranked
Coaches Poll Top 25:
-
Not Ranked
2013 Bracketology:
-
Projected 8 seed
Best Win: Kentucky – In Baylor’s only away game, they put
the Wildcats to shame with a 64-55 win.
This game ended UK’s 55 game home win streak and knocked them out of the
top 25 rankings.
Worst Loss: This was
a toss up, three losses isn’t bad, and none were blow-outs, but I am going to
go with Northwestern – it seems that every year is THE year that Northwestern
will finally make the NCAA tournament, and then every year Northwestern fails
to do so.
Key
Players
-
Senior
Guard, Pierre Jackson: Jackson is the Big 12 leading scorer, averaging 19
points per game in 34 minutes of play.
He shoots 44% from the field (though just 36% from 3pt land), and dishes
the ball at a fair rate as well. He
comes into the game averaging 6.3 assists per game. He had 9 assists in his last game vs.
BYU. He also averages 3 rebounds per
game, and 2.4 steals per game.
-
Freshman Center, Isaiah Austin. Gonzaga has had a size advantage in almost
every game this season, but that will be tested against Baylor. Austin is a 7’1, 220 pound freshman averaging
30 minutes per game. He averages 13.9
points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1 block per game.
His weakness is at the line. He
is only 11-28 at the free throw line this year for a dismal 39%.
-
Junior Forward, Cory Jefferson. Jefferson is another big presence on this
Baylor squad. At 6’9, 210 pounds he may
match up well against Harris. Jefferson
averages 13.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. He is shooting over 62% field goals this
season.
-
Senior Guard, AJ Walton. Walton is another “do it all” guard and he
fills up the stat sheet well. He
averages 7.5 points per game, 4.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.3 steals per
game. He is averaging 47% field goals,
but again is only connecting on 31% from beyond the arc.
Expectations:
Two senior guards lead the Baylor Bears this season, and
they know what to expect facing a Gonzaga team.
They have bigs that will match up well against Gonzaga’s size, but they
don’t have the depth. What Gonzaga needs
to be aware of is the blocking potential of Jefferson and Austin. Those two bigs come in with 37 blocks (27 for
Jefferson, 10 for Austin) so far this season.
That is 6 more blocks than the entire Gonzaga team this year. Gonzaga is led in blocks by Olynyk (8),
Karnowski (7), and Harris (6). We need to attack the rim with force, and not
be passive. Kelly Olynyk has been
blocked several times this year, and if he goes up weak, Baylor can punish
him.
What I like about this game is the absence of three point
shooters on the Baylor team. No player
is averaging higher than 36.8% from beyond the arc, with the exception of Deuce
Bello (averages 10 minutes per game) who is 2-4 for 50%. Baylor has four players averaging 10ppg or higher,
and they rely on a heavy post presence.
This could be a great matchup, but without them being able to light us
up from the outside, I see this game going in Gonzaga’s favor. I predict a Gonzaga win 78-69.
11 comments:
Baylor has a ton of individual talent and very little team cohesion.
Zags have pretty good talent too and (assuming they stick to the game plan) a relatively high level of team play.
This will be a battle.
Zags should win by 10!
Baylor matches up with us pretty well. I wouldn't be surprised if their game plan is to have Jefferson consistently driving the lane to get our bigs in foul trouble.
Austin parks himself around the basket and is successful with put backs and alley oops. He has good iq for a freshman.
Jackson has been a solid shooter and defender for Baylor this year also and has the potential to have a high scoring game unless Gary can hold him in check.
I agree they have lots of individual talent, and they have been playing better as a team lately. Their threes have also started dropping in more frequently. We will have a battle on our hands. Hopefully we will have intensity on defense and our guards will start hitting some long balls. We will need both of these to pull out a win.
I predict a close one; 75-71 Zags.
I think PK will show up this game and destroy the other freshman post. Not quite the athlete Austin is, but such an intelligent technical player.
Agree with everyone here, especially the parts about the game being close... I think Harris will have a big game personally. A diverse game is really helpful against a team with good shot blockers, and I know Harris can utilize all of the space between the three point line and the paint. I'm excited to see him go to work!
Had Baylor been able to put it all together and play like a team early on in the Season, they would be undefeated right now. This teams, athletic ability, length and experienced back court make them the best team GU has faced this year. The Guards better show up for this game and the front court better continue to play at a high level or GU loses this one.
They should be undefeated with the schedule they play. They haven't been tested, except with UK (who, let's face it, isn't that great this year).
All of their losses are close, which tells you they just don't really COMPETE for the full 40 minutes.
I think they will be one of our toughest contests, because I think they are very similar to our team (likes to feed the post, experienced guards that can get it inside). I think they will be challenging because of their length and size and shot blocking ability. But, in the end, I think GU is better overall. We have more depth. Our team can continuously bring in new players to stay fresh, and I think the teams that we struggle most with are the teams that can shoot the three and Baylor is not that team. I think we pull it out, and the score will be closer than the actual game seems.
They have not been tested? they lost to a pretty good Colorado team, beat a talented but young Kentucky team, pummeled BYU...who looked good in the first half of that game...their RPI is better than GU, their SOS is better....and they have a sure-fire future pro in Jackson....fact is, they beat UK on their home court...when they were #8...and this GU team could have easily lost the game at WSU and be 10-2 just better than Baylor....
There was a legit reason Baylor was 18th in the preseason poll...talent and potential...and they are finding their cohesion....so I stand by my assertion this is the best team to date GU has played this year.
As far as playing a whole game...that could be said of GU and especially Harris and GBJ who tend to disappear for long stretches just about every game...
as a side note....anyone else daydream about how good this GU team would be this year if Coleman was our starting 3? KP, GBJ, Coleman,Harris and KO...now that is a potent offensive unit...with PK, Dower off the bench....wowza.
Im so so so so impressed with Austin, glad we won the game, and i thought we deserved it, but that is an NBA talent.
Jackson and Jefferson are also in the top 100 NBA draft list and at one point were in the top 60. I too have been impressed with Austin this year. Who would have thought that lanky skinny 7 footer would have the skills and natural instinct he has?
Glad to see Kevin have a great game. Hope this becomes his standard type game and not the exception.
Defense still isn't stellar but overall not too bad. We are a deep team. Wish Kyle would have more confidence and take more shots. He has a nice looking release.
One more win to close out 2012 and we will go into WCC play with some confidence.
I get your point, I just wasn't sold on Baylor. Yes, I think they have great individual talent and Austin was great! But, as a team I wasn't sold prior to this game and I wasn't sold after the game. I live in Kentucky, I watch a lot of Kentucky games and yes, beating them on their home court is an achievement, but they weren't deserving of a #8 ranking. End of story. Also I really don't think Colorado or BYU are all that great. I really think baylors only test prior to tonight was at UK.
I agree Baylor is a good team and I was looking forward to tonight because I thought they would test us and they matched up well with us. I didn't say I thought we were a way better team, you are right, we could have easily lost to WSU. But, I think we have more depth and that is what helps our team succeed.
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