December 24, 2007

Current Zags draft chances

This is an excerpt from a post i left on GUboards.com... "I happen to be a pretty big NBA draft buff, i make my own mock drafts every year. With the current Zags roster, there happen to be 4 to 7 future NBA players. Now these are in varying drafts from next year thru 2011(last year of eligability for current freshman). Im not saying you should take my opinion and run with it, but i do have a lot of experience with Mock Drafting. So here goes..."

Eligability is in parenthesis:

Micah Downs (2008, 2009)
If he declared pro now, he would not be taken in the 2008 NBA draft. He is too raw, although he does show flashes at times of a future NBA player. If he stays until he is a senior and continues to improve at the same rate, i think he is a fringe 2nd rounder, probably in the last 10 picks of the draft or undrafted.

Matt Bouldin (2008, 2009, 2010)
If Matt declared pro this year he would be a late 2nd rounder. If he declared in 2009 he would be an early 2nd rounder, i think the most likely result with Matt is 2010 when he is a senior, i think he would be a late 1st rounder at his current improvement rate, although he could go as high as top 15 or as low as undrafted depending on his work ethic. He happens to have the most inconsistent scouting reports among all non freshman zags.

Austin Daye (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Daye is the surest bet to make the NBA, with his potential and his height (Similar to a Rashard Lewis) He would be a late first rounder if he went out in 2008, top 10 if he leaves in 2009, and may or may not improve that stock any later. His biggest draw is potential. That decreases with every passing year he sits on the Zags roster, he may reach his potential while here(similar to Adam Morrison, or Brandon Roy with Washington) or he may never reach it in college or the pros. I think he has a 50-50 chance of leaving after this year, and a 75% chance of leaving next year.

Josh Heytvelt (2008, 2009)
Almost as sure a first rounder as Daye. If he left this year he would be a fringe 1st rounder, proabably late 20s. That is assuming he can get back to the form he showed before his drug charges. If he stays and continues at the that level for the rest of this year and into next he will be anywhere from a top 15 pick in 2009 to a early second rounder.

Jeremy Pargo (2008, 2009)
Pargo is an enigma. He at times looks like a lottery pick, but others shows some big weaknesses (His Jumper). I think if he continues to preform on the level he did versus Oklahoma he could leave this year and be a first rounder. More likely he will stay thru next year and if he improves at all will be a fringe first rounder or early second rounder.

Steven Gray (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
At this point there is not nearly enough information on Gray to think he would ever be an NBA player. The most likely time he would declare depending on his ability to show improvement would be 2010 or 2011. I would not project him in any draft yet, too early to tell.


Robert Sacre (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
Pretty much the same as Gray, although i think he is more likely to be drafted due to his NBA ready body. If he can improve on his athleticism in the paint and he offensive ability inside i think he has a chance to be a future NBA player, although it will be a couple years until he is at the level to generate that type of interest, maybe 2010 or 2011. I think he is definately the heir to Heytvelts throne as the Zags best post player, we will see how things work out.

Of course you dont have to agree, that is the fun of projecting the draft, but i honestly think there are 4 locks for NBAers on the roster, with room for as many as 7.

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