January 4, 2015

Four Saturday Upsets, Gonzaga Survives Portland Run to Avoid being Fifth

Saturday handed four AP top 25 teams losses to unranked teams (Seton Hall over Villanova (6), Butler at St. John's (15)*, New Mexico over Colorado State (24), USC (SC) at Iowa State (9)), and a fifth needed two overtimes to escape (Georgia at Notre Dame (14)).  Gonzaga looked like it could've been the sixth team in trouble when Portland cut the Zags 21-point lead to just 5, but some clutch veteran play got the Zags back in line to take a healthy 87-75 win.

*Seton Hall downed St. John's earlier in the week before the AP had a chance to adjust, so St. John's may fall out of the rankings altogether for two straight losses against unranked opponents, and Seton Hall will get AP votes following two straight wins over AP top 25 teams.

Handing Off the Scoring Load

The Zags ran up the score board early again, only to have the home team make a second half run, and the break down couldn't be excused as home court advantage.  The Zags had a sizable fan contingent that repeatedly out-chanted the home crowd.  There were a few things contributing to the slump.  Kyle Wiltjer had an uncharacteristically quiet night, chipping in 8 points after a 15 and a 24-point game.  Gary Bell Jr. was shooting fine, and offered 12 points, but he was pulling his punches down the stretch because he was playing with 4 fouls.

Przemek Karnowski and Kevin Pangos picked up the scoring load.  Each had 21 points and combined for 3-5 from the promise land (you read that right, PK had a 3).  Both also played big minutes, PK playing 32, and Pangos logging a marathon game of 36 minutes.  PK's minutes were not easy ones.  He played with a  2" advantage against Thomas van der Mars (28 minutes) which translated to a  better field goal percentage than his opponent (9-12 versus 8-14).  But van der Mars was far quicker to the boards, logging 8 against PK's 2.



Steady Veteran Hand Stays Steady

Byron Wesley continued to quietly contribute in 31 minutes of play.  He contributed 10 points with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal, all on a single turnover.  He continues to play unflashy but efficient basketball, scoring well into double figures in 30+ minutes in all three away games opening conference play.


Concerns, and why they're not really concerns

For the second in the first three games in conference play, the Zags allowed their opponent to break down a 20-point first half lead.  BYU actually took the lead for several minutes into the second half.  There are a few things to note though.  In both games, the Zags had enough offensive options to go to when the default post game was losing efficacy.  Pangos and Bell have been shooting well when the team needed it.  The Zags roster is also deep enough to replace star players who might be having an off night (a point Seth Greenberg beat to death, saying "you know I love me some Zags.").  The Zags have had at least two players with 20+ points in two of its first three conference games, and they weren't the same players.  Wiltjer, Pangos, and Karnowski have all shared in the honors (with an honorable mention going to Wesley for the aforementioned consistent scoring and offensive efficiency).  

No Safety for Ranked Teams

The Zags have to be careful from here on out.  The last two weeks have handed four AP top 10 teams losses from unranked teams, and the Zags have enjoyed default bumps on those losses (possibly taking the number 6 spot tomorrow on Villanova's (6) loss to Seton Hall).

Seton Hall Celebrates after Upsetting Number 6 Villanova in Regulation

Sound familiar?  The Zags got their first ever AP #1 ranking in 2013-14 by coasting through its conference schedule and letting the rest of the AP top 5s lose.  But being the best isn't only about beating tough teams, it's also about not falling asleep when playing easy teams (UNLV over Arizona (3)).  Further, the Zags can't control the conference schedule going into the tournament.  They end conference play with 3 home games and have already knocked off the three teams in back-to-back-to-back away games who beat the Zags last year.  The heavy lifting is done.  All they can do now is not fall asleep at the wheel and keep winning.

7 comments:

Unknown said...

Nice way to start WCC conf play by whipping three teams that beat us last year, as you mentioned, and especially on the road.

Was bummed about St. Johns losing again as that is supposed to be one of our "quality" wins. Let's hope they can pull it together.

These comebacks by our opponents are worrisome. If it continues there will be a time our shots don't fall, a ref makes a bad call, the ball bounces the wrong way, it is going to cost us a "W".

But, you gotta be happy about getting 3 Ws to start conf, all on the road.

The icing was special K bombing in the deeeep three. He thought the shot clock was going to expire so he let it rip. Loved the smirk on his face as he scrambled back to get set on D!

Thanks, Taymour!

Unknown said...

If the Zags were to win out....a BIG if, I suppose the polsters would remember that #1 ranking and be less generous in passing one out.

But, this time around we were thought much higher of & ranked higher earlier than the last time.

Plus, w/ all the positive pub on GU's transfers and depth, as well as the senior back-court, it could still happen.

As for me, I'd rather have a Final 4. Heck, even an elite 8.

Osco said...

Enjoyed the writeup. Thanks.
I think there is still a good chance someone will have a lights-out game and beat GU before the season is over. If not, I would expect GU to rise in rankings, but unless they show dominance late in the season I still wouldn't expect them to get a 1 seed.

Unknown said...

Yeah, I can't imagine GU would go undefeated w/ the only blemish being an OT road loss to #3 'Zona. It would be nice but not probable, imo.

Example: Kentucky is LOADED, stuffed full of All-Americans & considered unbeatable by many this year, yet they almost got jacked by a 9-5 Ole Miss team and just pulled it out in OT yesterday!





Taymour Semnani said...

I wish Ole Miss pulled it out to put a little scare in the top 5.

Any predictions on who goes lights out against us?

Osco said...

I like GU's chances of sweeping at home, although I expect at least BYU and SMC to be stressful.
On the road I could see SMC, Pep, Santa Clara pulling one off. The leadership of Pangos, Bell, and Wesley seems to strong to expect a GU collapse (hoping they figure out the lulls against SD and Port), so I think the other team will need to have a special night.

Unknown said...

I don't think any one player should be able to go lights out on us.We are just too deep, rotate next man up and adjust.

Really bummed about McClellan's injury. I had hoped to get even stronger ...it will have to wait.

If Perkins is back full strength and McClellan is going full force I feel reg season upsets are/should be practically impossible with our remaining schedule.