Non-Conference Sleepers Threaten Zags March Drive

We're at the top of conference play.  Everyone and their dog will tell you non-conference play is the best gauge of a team's positioning come March.  But some conference games have shaken up conventional assumptions about who the powerhouses are.

Case in point:  UW came into conference play 11-3, ranked, and with wins over San Diego State (13) and Oklahoma (15).  Now they're a dismal 0-3 in PAC12 play against Cal, Stanford, and Wazzu.  And unranked.

2014 Retrospective - Lynn Holzman and WCC Influence on the Selection Committee

Then-West Coast Conference Commissioner Jamie Zaninovich was on the 2014 NCAA Tournament selection committee.  Even with him on that committee, the Zags didn't get out of the round of 32.  They got dealt a really unfavorable seeding (I was sitting on the floor at Los Angles International when I got a text from a buddy saying "Omgf*** . . . wtf how do we get so f***ed").  The Zags (8) got matched up against Marcus Smart's Oklahoma State (9) for the round of 64, and inevitably, Arizona (1) for the round of 32, below.

Gonzaga's 2014 Seed

Courtesy of espn.com

The same friend went on to say "I'd rather be in byus spot[.]"  He made a compelling point.  BYU faced a very beatable Oregon team that hadn't been ranked since its fourth game into PAC12 play.  Oklahoma State wasn't ranked when the Zags played them in the round of 64, but only because their season was marred after Smart was suspended for three games for his scuffle with a Texas Tech fan.  Getting past a 2-seed Wisconsin team after playing less-than-full speed to beat Oregon might have been an easier endeavor than playing full speed to beat a top 25 Oklahoma State team only to face a 1-seed Arizona team that sent two pro.  ****Low-blow alert.****  And it's not like BYU was going to do anything with the 2 seed besides trip Ben Carter.

Austin trips Carter, gets a Flagrant 1.  They're always
watching, Nate.  The whole country was watching.

BYU's 2014 Seed

With Zaninovich on the selection committee, it's unclear why the Zags got stuck in such a treacherous corner of the bracket.  This isn't to say Zaninovich didn't try.  Maybe he did and the committee didn't bite, or maybe he was horse-trading to secure BYU's at-large bid (I don't buy that commissioners step out of the room when their teams are up, at least not for seeding).  Whatever the reason, the Zags made the best of a bad hand, and convincingly put Oklahoma State away a second time for a bitter-sweet send off for Smart (a Mark Few pupil in the 2012 FIBA U18 championships) to the NBA Draft.

December 31, 2012.  Coach Few and Smart reminisce after Gonzaga

squeaked by Oklahoma State in Stillwater, 69-68.

Jamie Zaninovich helped grow the WCC to include BYU and Pacific, and now he's moved on to the PAC12 as a Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer.  Best of luck to him.  We now have Lynn Holzman, and hopefully she'll be able to help the Zags get eased into March competition.
But the Zags can't count on that.  In a best case scenario with 1 or 2 seed, unranked, non-conference teams are surprising some top 25 teams, and the Zags should take notice; they're on their own.

Lynn Holzman, WCC Commissioner,

succeeds Jamie Zaninovich.

Unranked Sleepers*

Here are some unranked sleepers that might not have had quality non-conference games to score some AP top 25 attention, but will get attention in-conference.

PAC 12*

(Fair warning, the following is highly editorialized)

UW (21) @ Stanford - Words cannot explain my hatred for the Stanford Cardinal and its fans.  Honestly, who chants "you can't do that" at a division I basketball game?  How entitled does a student body have to be to use a chubby middleschooler's retort as a rallying cry for a PAC12 basketball team?  Cameron Crazies step aside.  Stanford's out ranked you by combining the traditional annoying nerd with a healthy tinge of pretentious pettiness typically reserved for Mikhail Prokhorov.

Rookies and Mutts.

Cardinal, in case you're wondering, this is how it's done.

My personal feelings aside, Stanford showed an ability to grind out a (very boring) win.  Yes, UW had a few losses, and it was already in neutral rolling out of the AP top 25, and it was a home game, but a win over a ranked team is a win over a ranked team.  I watched the game from tip to buzzer and can honestly say I have no motivation to write anything else about it.  UW didn't care, Stanford is a mess of terribleness, and the game was mind-numbingly dry.  Since then though, they went on to lose to an equally, and uncharacteristically, terrible UCLA team in yet another 2OT dozer.  'nuff said about that.

Now back to some semblance of objectivity...

The PAC 12 will field at least Arizona and Utah, with Arizona a potential 1 seed, and favored for the automatic bid. Watch for Oregon and Colorado to make some moves, and maybe USC to get it's act together.

Arizona is not the issue for the Zags coming out of the PAC12 (hold on, let me explain), if for the only reason that they're a known quantity.  The Zags showed they could beat Arizona, and the AP believed it.  We went into McKale ranked #9, with Arizona ranked #3. We lost by 3 in overtime.  Despite that loss, the AP didn't change.  It left us right at #9, and Arizona #3.  That tells you the AP viewed the game as a chop.  It basically said "not enough information."  Utah is the PAC12's blind card for the Zags, and they should really worry if they face Utah.  Utah made its bones on Wichita State, and has been rolling ever since.

SEC*

At this point, Kentucky is a safe bet for a number 1 seed, and may pull off the unicorn 40-win season.

Ole Miss @ Kentucky: Kentucky is unbeatable.  Nobody stands a chance, not even the Philadelphia 76ers.  But then unranked Ole Miss visited the Wildcats for their SEC opener, and gave Kentucky a 10-point heart-attack.  It took some key plays down the stretch, some missed free throws, leg cramps for Rebels star Stefan Moody, and an overtime for Kentucky to flee with a 3-point win.  If Moody didn't start LeBroning , Ole Miss, a team who came in 9-4, with a loss against Charleston Southern, just might have beat the Country's undisputed #1 team on their own court.  These are the likes of teams the Zags should be concerned about going into March.

Big East

Seton Hall (19) @ Xavier:  Seton Hall just finished beating two ranked teams, St. John's (15), then Villanova (6).  Just as soon as they earned AP honors, they traveled to unranked Xavier and lost by 11, then to Creighton and stole the game by 1. A streaky Seton Hall is scarier than a predictable Arizona team.  Think Dayton Flyers (11 seed) circa 2014 March Madness.  They upset Aaron Craft and (an) Ohio State (6), then Syracuse (3), then Kansas (2) to finally lose to Florida (1).  The Zags are sitting pretty as a mid major 2-seed, and prime meat for an 11-seed upset.

DePaul: Who loses to Loyola Marymount at home, then beats Marquette, Xavier, and Creighton back-to-back-to-back? Whoever the heck DePaul is (their first google result is a story on Drake wearing his creepy crush's jersey).  Who absorbs a first-half 21-point blowout at Villanova (8) only to comeback and outscore 'nova by 4 in the second half?  DePaul.

Really though, DePaul probably isn't even going to the tournament.  The point is that any team can stumble, and any team can go on a run.  Washed-up coaches commentating on local sports channels constantly fill time by saying basketball is a game of runs.  It's not.  What they mean to say is if the objectively-better team gets lazy, any team can make a run.  For that reason, the better team can prevent runs.

It's a critical distinction because when a 2 seed Kansas loses to the 11 seed Dayton Flyers, nobody honestly believes the Flyers are a better team than the 2013-14 Jayhawks.  Kansas got lazy, Dayton ran away.  Case in point: Game 6 of the 2013 NBA finals.  The Spurs thought they had the title wrapped up in 6 games (3-2), got sloppy, and let the Heat get two 3 point attempts off.  The highlight reels only remember Ray Allen's shot but the reality is the Spurs lack of hustle at the glass let the Lebron James and Ray Allen get looks, and each shot over .40 from 3-point range in the finals.  That means the Heat really had over an 80% chance to get the triple in their last possession in regulation.  The Heat didn't win, the Spurs lost.  Still don't agree?  The same two rosters got back to the finals a year later, and the Spurs put a 4-1 beat-down on the Heat.  The difference was the motivation to play all 48 minutes, or in 'nova's case, 40.

B1G

Maryland (11) @ Illinois:  Illinois is always dangerous.  They're bad loss is probably against Oregon in  Champaign, but they redeemed themselves beating the #11 Terps.  Just to point out a scar, remember the Fighting Illini handed the Zags 1 of their 8 losses in the Kennel (since the McCarthey Athletic Center was built).  We're beatable anytime, anywhere, by anyone.

ACC*

Louisville  (5) @ Clemson:  The Tigers hosted UNC (19) and lost by 24.  Four days later they traveled to Louisville and gave Montrezl Harrell's Cardinals (5) a scare, losing by 6 (it was closer than that, but the 6 point gap came after fouling to preserve the game clock.

Duke (2) @ Wake Forrest:  Danny Manning's team played two AP top 5 teams within three days of each other and lost by less than 10 each.  They host UNC (18) on January 21st.  Watch for an upset.

MWC

There's a bit of buzz coming out of Laramie.  I don't believe it yet, because they've lost to both teams who might be anybody, SMU and Cal.  The real test is when they face conference powerhouse San Diego State January 14th.  Check back for an update as to whether Wyoming deserves a tournament watch.

*UPDATE

See Sunday Upset Update: Zags to be Week 10 AP #3?


DePaul and Wyoming?  Naw…

A number of these teams probably won't even get into the tournament, but that's not the point.  The point is conference play is matching up some sleepers with some powerhouses, and yielding some unexpected results.  Maybe facing Oklahoma State or Oregon in the round of 64 isn't all that bad.  At least we know how good they are, especially when it's do-or-die.  That's where the "Madness" in March Madness' sudden-death elimination come from.  Division I ball doesn't give you the luxury of stumbling a game like the 7-game NBA playoffs do.  The Zags shouldn't be self-conscious (do these make my record look fat?) but should play every game like they're playing a 1 seed.