Well folks, it’s official. Your 2013 Gonzaga Bulldogs have
received the first #1 seed in School History! Its special, and we should all be
satisfied with just getting the seed right? Wrong! The rest of the nation
thinks we are cute, they think we are going to lay down and accept defeat like
we always do to a more qualified team. I’m here to say that this can’t happen.
This is our year; this is our chance to challenge not just for a trip to
Atlanta but for our first NCAA championship.
So lets take a look at our potential run to Los Angeles, here is our Sweet 16 bracket:
Gonzaga
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Southern
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Gonzaga
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Pittsburgh
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Pittsburgh
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Wichita St.
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For this purpose lets assume Ole Miss and Boise St./LaSalle lose their respective contests.
Southern is not an awful 16 seed, not nearly as bad as some might assume. they actually rank 2nd nationally in Field goal defense at 36.5% and are led by the upperclassmen backcourt tandem of Derick Beltran and Malcolm Miller who combine for 32 of the teams 68 points per game or roughly 47% of the scoring. That being said i see this one as a fairly easy contest for the Zags, we should be able to shut down that backcourt and win pretty handedly. Final Score Gonzaga 86 Southern 52.
Pittsburgh and Wichita St. is going to be a very good matchup. Both these teams are fairly even and this one could go either way, but for the purpose of picking our opponent, lets say Pittsburgh edges the Shockers, setting up a Saturday matchup with the Panthers. Pittsburgh is long, athletic, and they love to use pressure defense to create opportunities in the fast break. This is a tough matchup for the Zags, this is the type of team that we will struggle with. We should be able to handle a team like Pittsburgh if we are to make a deep run in the tourney. Final Score Gonzaga 67 Pittsburgh 62
13 comments:
I am going to be nervous every game from here on out; Southern or not. Too much is riding on these games this year; our hopes and excitement as well as quieting all those fans who are still grumbling about our seed, conference and wins.
I've been reading some Pitt blogs. The fans are disgusted that Pitt got such a low seed but seem to be pretty upbeat about facing us. Everyone seems to think that we still can't play physical teams. It probably will be a bit of a dogfight, but hopefully we will prevail, with a bit more ease than is anticipated.
I can't help but agree with our doubters across the land; our conference does nothing for us in preparing for these bigger, more physical teams. However, I do think we have more balance, depth and skill than we have been able to exhibit during our conference games, so maybe we will see our true ability come out against the better teams and will glide into the Final Four. We can only hope, right?
They haven't beat Wichita State, yet
Adding to the above comment...I seem to remember that just last year, West Virgina was going to just KILL us. Out physical us. Dominate us. And, WV got their butts kicked.
Yeah I've seen plenty of media people picking Pittsburgh (and overlooking Wichita State) to beat us, which is a little frustrating. That said, I'm excited to prove them all wrong.
Just saw this on the Dan Patrick Show:
"In the last 11 NCAA tournaments no team has won it all without being a Top 3 seed with a field goal percentage over 50% OR Top 3 seed averaging over 38.9 RPG. This year the only teams that meet that criteria are Gonzaga (over 50% FG) and Kansas (over 38.9 RPG)."
http://www.danpatrick.com/2013/03/19/stat-of-the-day-that-will-affect-how-you-fill-out-your-brackets/
I'm not so sure Pitt is going to win that first game.
That said, Pitt doesn't have the scoring to keep pace with the Zags . . . and that assumes the Zags do not play good D (GU D is going to surprise folks back east).
No doubt in my mind that you can purchase tickets for week 2 with great confidence!
Don't mean to rag but isn't it time to update the site photo. Last picture I saw of Rob he was wearing a Gael's t-shirt. How about a Kelly, E and Mike Hart threesome?
Pitt is #7 in the Nation in KenPom. We may win, but it'll be a dogfight.
Honestly, it is a bad matchup for us. Pressure D is not something we want to deal with, and not something we HAVE dealt well with. See: end of BYU game in Spokane. See: our out of bounds plays.
Mark my words: that game will turn on foul trouble for the bigs. They're too good a rebounding team for us to have E and KO off the court for very long. If we can keep KO on the court, and he and Elias can rack up the fouls on their aggressive frontcourt, we win. If KO has a subpar game, or sits 15-20 minutes with fouls, we lose, because at that point we get ousted on the glass.
I just want to enjoy the game with Southern before I worry to much about Wichita State or Pittsburg.
Looking at the other regions though....it does look like we were dealt the hardest road. I know, the lowest one seed should, but I don't have to like it.
Louisvile gets Colorado State or Missou.
Kansas gets UNC or Villanova.
Indiana gest NCSU or Temple.
Gonzaga gets Pitt or Wichita State.
Of the above paths.....which would you rather have?
Also, I was thinking that very same thought the other day that Kurt mentioned above....We were supposed to be too soft for West Virginia last year. They had this terrific D and were going to kill us. I was so nervous I thought I'd puke, but we smoked that team!
As far as changing the main site pic, I can see what you mean. I always thought whatever the lead pic was it could stand some color. We'll see if we can do something about that. Thanks for your suggestion.
*Of course I'll be up all night, unable to sleep, in anticipation of the Southern game. I feel 99% that we'll win but yo....it means the tourney has begun.
GOOOOOO ZAGS!~
Ohhh its hard to sit here and say nothing . . .
So I'll say it.
Everything you hear about Pitt is little more than East Coast Bias at its best.
"Overall, the Panthers were only 4-7 against the RPI top 50 on the season. They were able to beat Georgetown on the road, but couldn't quite handle Louisville or Syracuse (the second time). They shoot the ball very well from the field, but outside of their guards, are a miserable wreck from the free throw line."
Hmmm Free throws???
Pitt has a nice point guard and they shoot a lot from outside. Inside their offense isn't exactly a train wreck but it ain't the Silver Streak either!
This is a team that went 12-6 in the Big east. They lost to Cincinnati, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Marquette x 2, Michigan, and Louisville.
You know Gonzaga is going to beat Louisville! How can you fret about how Gonzaga matches up against this team!
Has Gonzaga played any teams this year that rely heavily on outside scoring and inside present you with a series of Goons who are there to bang, collect fouls and plug up the middle?
Lezzsee?
How about . . . most of the teams in the WCC -- most notably St. Marys and BYU (apologies to Brandon Davies).
Gonzaga sees some version of 'thug ball' almost every game they played this year. Indeed that's probably the smart way to play the Zags. If we get the ball in the paint you know we are going to score at a high percentage. If our 3's aren't falling it gets to be a long night for the Zags. (but we still win those games folks -- we still win -- we just don't score as much).
How much more ready for this kind of a game can we be?
Don't bite your nails or lose any sleep of this stuff. Enjoy the moment, and let the good times roll!
KenPom does not have an east coast bias.
Looks like we can put the "Pitt" argument to bed....and not fret about them as they lost to Wichita State.......who'da thunk?
Probably not KenPom.
He has Wichita St. in the top 25 as well...
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