Gonzaga by the Numbers: Just how good are we?

The new polls were released yesterday, and with the beat down Miami received last week (losing by 15 points to Wake Forest), predictions came true and the Zags were ranked #2 in the Nation for the first time in school history.  Interestingly, this is also the first time since Memphis in 2008, that a non-power 6 team was ranked in the top 2.

So the next question becomes how high can the Zags go?  Can they be ranked #1?  Perhaps, if Indiana drops a few games of their upcoming schedule- they still face Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan to close out the regular season.  But have the Zags done enough to earn #1?  That is the argument that the rest of the Nation is considering.  The amount of hateful comments directed to the Zags on ESPN and local papers for being “over-rated” is astounding.  So let’s take a look at the numbers and dissect just how this Gonzaga team compares to the rest of the top 5.  I also added in Florida and Louisville to round out the lower half of the top 10 and to provide comparisons for the SEC and Big East, in addition to the Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 conferences.

First, the polls:

AP Top 5:

1.     Indiana (24-3)

2.     Gonzaga (27-2)

3.     Duke (24-3)

4.     Michigan (23-4)

5.     Miami (22-4)

Outliers:

8. Florida (22-4)

10. Louisville (22-5)

Coaches Poll:

1.     Indiana

2.     Gonzaga

3.     Duke

4.     Michigan

5.     Kansas (23-4)

Outliers:

6.     Florida

9.   Louisville

Now we will examine each teams Conference, Conference Rank, Non-Conference Strength of Schedule, Overall Strength of Schedule, and Record vs. RPI Top 25.  Teams with the worst rank in each category are highlighted in yellow.  As you can see below, Gonzaga suffers at first glance due to our overall SOS, impacted strongly by our conference schedule in the WCC.  We have also played fewer teams in the RPI Top 25.  Michigan also looks weak with the below numbers when you consider their non-conference strength of schedule at a horrific 162^nd in the nation, and they have split their games, going 4-4 vs Top 25 RPI.

School	Conference	ESPN Conf. Rank	ESPN Non Conf. SOS	ESPN Overall SOS	ESPN VS. RPI Top 25
Indiana	Big Ten	1	59	27	7-1
Gonzaga	WCC	10	26	79	2-0
Duke	ACC	4	1	2	5-2
Michigan	Big Ten	1	162	41	4-4
Miami	ACC	4	3	3	5-1
Kansas	Big 12	5	21	14	5-2
Florida	SEC	8	8	22	2-2
Louisville	Big East	2	31	9	2-3

Now, we will take a look at additional advanced statistics, which are becomingly increasingly important to college basketball.  ESPN wrote an article yesterday outlining how the sport has changed and more  coaches are looking at advanced statistics to adjust their game plans and for recruiting purposes.

In this next chart, we will take a look at RPI, BPI, Ken Pomeroy Overall rankings, Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and the UPS Team Performance Index.

RPI: Ratings Percentage Index.  This measures a teams overall winning %, their opponent’s winning %, and their opponent’s opponent’s winning %.  The majority of this index comes from how your competition fares, so the better they do, the better your win looks, and the better your team’s RPI.

BPI: Basketball Power Index. This is a new index from ESPN that factors in scoring margin, diminishing returns for blowouts, pace of game, Home/Neutral/Road Wins, SOS beyond Opponent’s Opponent’s W-L, All wins are better than losses, and de-weighting games with missing key players.

KenPom: Ken Pomeroy is a statistical GURU.  His measurements take into account a teams offensive and defensive efficiency by weighing points scored and points allowed per possession.  It also factors in winning percentage, tempo, SOS, etc.  For more information, click here.

·      Adjusted Offense - Adjusted offensive efficiency - An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.

·      Adjusted Defense - Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.

UPS Team Performance Index: A Data index that measures offensive and defensive efficiency.  This index is designed to identify well-balanced teams that do multiple things well.  It includes six key stats:

·      Offensive Measure: Effective Field Goal %

·      Defensive Measure: Effective Field Goal % Against

·      Rebounding: Rebounding %

·      Ball Handling: Assists/Game, Steals/Game, Opponent’s Assists/Game, Opponent’s Steals/Games

·      Overall Miscue Measure: “Non-Steal” Turnovers/Game, Fouls/Game, Opponent’s Turnovers/Game, Opponent’s Fouls/Game

·      Success Measure: Winning %

For more information, click here.

School	RPI	BPI	KenPom	Adjusted Offense	Adjusted Defense	UPS Team Performance
Indiana	7	1	2	1	13	1 (130.39)
Gonzaga	10	5	4	4	23	2 (130.08)
Duke	1	3	6	5	22	9 (121.94)
Michigan	6	6	8	2	43	10 (121.78)
Miami	2	14	13	39	6	20 (118.53)
Kansas	4	7	9	22	7	11 (121.73)
Florida	5	2	1	3	2	3 (129.37)
Louisville	8	4	3	20	1	13 (120.51)

As RPI again is really a measurement of your opponents, it is no wonder that Gonzaga has an RPI of 10.  Our Strength of Schedule really prevents this number from getting much better.  However, when you look at KenPom and the UPS rankings, we are a solid team.  We have an extremely high-adjusted offense, and our defense is in the top 25 nationally.  If you look immediately below Gonzaga, you can see that our Offense and Defense compares us very similarly to Duke.  Florida is a dangerous team looking at advanced statistics, as they rank in the top 5 in all categories.  

On a semi-unrelated note: per the above, I think Miami is overrated…which I have been saying for weeks.  They should have dropped much lower than 5^th in the rankings after a 15 point blowout to Wake Forest.  Who by the way, is 12-14 overall, and 5-9 in conference, ranked 162^nd in the Nation in Field Goal %, 290^th in Assists per game, 235^th in Rebounds per game, and 174^th in points per game.   Prior to that, Miami barely beat Clemson (45-43) and barely beat Virginia (54-50).  They are on a downward trend. 

Also, for all the love that Indiana has been receiving and all the hatred for Gonzaga, one thing to note is that Indiana and Gonzaga share the same losses.  Both teams lost to Illinois and Butler. 

Finally, I will leave you with this little thought from Andy Katz:

• Don't judge Gonzaga on its past. Look at the Zags now since that's all the selection committee will do. The Zags have earned a No. 1 seed to this point.

Andy Katz, I agree.  Gonzaga is playing some tremendous basketball right now.

That’s all folks!

*Source: Statistics compiled from ESPN, Kenpom.com, Stats Hosted Solutions.