RE-POST: BYU Preview

Writing about BYU athletics is always a difficult prospect. Players leave on missions at different points in their playing careers, sometimes taking off after a promising Freshman season, other times redshirting beforehand, or even declining to go on a mission entirely (Jimmer Fredette famously decided not to go on one). Where the player goes on their mission has a huge impact on their conditioning and skill when they return. Will they have access to a gym to stay in shape? Will they focus on proselytizing and avoid playing basketball for 2 full years? Will the mental growth make them more “mature” on the court, making road games easier? Honestly, I don’t know. Each individual situation is different. I do, however, have some theories.

This concept works more for BYU’s football team than it does for basketball, but it still works a little. Here is my theory: BYU is successful in large part because of their huge recruiting base. However, when you look at their individual success the past couple decades, they have mostly beaten up mediocre to bad teams, while failing to compete with more elite programs. This is because (here’s the theory part) they rarely get the 5 star elite prospects needed to win a title, but they do get a bevy of solid athletes who, upon returning from their missions, are more developed physically and mentally than their opponents. The mental difference between an 18 year old freshman and a 22 year old senior is huge, enough that “senior leadership” is a tried and true sports cliché that gets trotted out every March by ESPN talking heads.  What happens when that senior is 24 and potentially married? It’s a thought. Let me know what y’all think in the comments.

Last year, BYU finished 3^rd in the WCC and qualified for the dance as a play-in team, coming back from a huge deficit to beat IONA during the “first-four” games. They beat Gonzaga at home, but lost to Baylor, SMC, and LMU (!), perhaps demonstrating both that LMU could be a dark horse this year and that BYU had a flawed team. That said, they bring back 2 huge pieces, along with a potential game-breaker returning from his mission. This year’s BYU team will go as far as Matt Carlino, Brandon Davies, and Tyler Haws can take it.

Brandon Davies pulls up for a jumper. I'm sure it went very well for him.

What they lose:

Noah Hartsock is the big name here, and rightly so. Last season, he averaged 17 points, 5 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.6 blocks and .9 steals a game. A little bit of everything, huh? He shot the ball at a 56% clip from the field and always seemed to make the big baskets his team needed.. It wasn’t just that Hartsock was a senior leader who seemed like he had been there for ten years… to me, having a dynamic scorer like Hartsock takes a lot of the stress out of a stumbling offense incorporating new pieces. Point guard can’t seem to shake a nagging defender? Dump it off to Hartsock at the elbow and let him shoot it. Davies has foul trouble? Let Hartsock play down low a bit. It gives you options, and covers up your deficiencies, which is something that all coaches covet.  

The other key loss is Charles Abouo, who was one of those Guy Landry/David Pendergraft types who filled the stat sheet with hustle plays, steals, and key rebounds. Last year’s stats don’t jump off the page, but 11 points, 3 assists and 1 steal a game has to be replaced by someone in the new lineup. They’ll make up the points, but having a player that knows how to handle pressure and comes up with big rebounds (seriously, I feel like Abouo did that a lot) is the kind of thing that’s hard to quantify in the box score.

Matt Carlino (10) will be the player to watch on this BYU squad. If he makes the leap, the Cougars could be dangerous.

What they bring back:

The key pieces on this BYU squad are Brandon Davies, Matt Carlino, and Tyler Haws. Davies is either the best, or the second best (after Dower) center in the WCC. He is skilled with his back to the basket, has some range with his jump shot (though not much), and is a talented rebounder (he averaged 15 and 8 last year). With the loss of Hartsock, Davies is the focal point of the BYU frontcourt, and I think he’ll have a huge year. Carlino, as we all saw in his games against Gonzaga, is an adept ball handler and distributor. I think his shooting numbers go up this year as he looks for his own shot and takes control of the backcourt. Having options like Haws and Davies to look for will only make that easier. Finally, Tyler Haws returns from his mission ready to contribute. Checking out a recap of their game against Tennessee State (link here), Haws led all scorers with 22 points, mostly through mid-range jumpshots. To me, this makes their offense much more complete. They have an elite scorer in the post, some very good shooters to surround him with, a heady guard to run the offense, and an excellent mid-range shooter who can bail them out of a bad possession.

Schedule:

Date	Opponent	Predicted Result
11/9	Tennessee State	W
11/13	Georgia State	W
11/16	Florida State (Coaches vs Cancer Classic in NYC)	L
11/17	Notre Dame/Saint Joseph’s (Coaches vs Cancer Classic in NYC)	L
11/21	University of Texas-San Antonio	W
11/24	Cal State Northridge	W
11/28	Montana	W
12/1	@ Iowa State	W
12/5	Utah State	W
12/8	Utah	W
12/15	@ Weber State	W
12/18	Eastern New Mexico	W
12/21	@ Baylor	L
12/27	Northern Arizona	W
12/29	Virginia Tech	W
1/3	LMU	W
1/5	@ San Francisco	W
1/10	Pepperdine	W
1/12	@ Santa Clara	W
1/16	SMC	L
1/19	USD	W
1/24	@ Gonzaga	L
1/26	@ Portland	W
1/31	@ Pepperdine	W
2/2	Santa Clara	W
2/7	@ USD	W
2/9	San Francisco	W
2/16	Portland	W
2/21	@ SMC	L
2/28	Gonzaga	L
3/2	@ LMU	L

Dave Rose applauds something on the court, while thinking about something else.

Right now, I have the Cougars winning 23 games and losing 8, which is a solid season for plenty of teams out there. They have some pretty good teams in their non-conference schedule, playing Florida State and the winner of Notre Dame/St. Joe’s in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in New York, Utah State (a good team), Iowa State (weakened without Royce White, but still OK), and a road game against Baylor. That said, I think their season will be determined by two key stretches:  November 16^th – December 21^st and February 21^st – March 2^nd.

If BYU manages to surprise Florida State or anyone in that tournament, they would have a big win in hand (obviously a key for an at-large bid). I have them losing to FSU, Notre Dame, and Baylor. I don’t think BYU will be able to match up against nationally ranked teams in these neutral site/road games. The rest of this stretch is important as BYU simply cannot drop any of their other non-conference games if they want to have a solid resume for the dance. I think they will do this, but a surprise loss to in-state rivals Utah or Utah State might be the straw that breaks their loss column’s back.

The second stretch I mentioned involves the toughest parts of BYU’s WCC schedule. They get SMC and Gonzaga within 8 days of each other in mid-January (the Gonzaga game being on the road) to start with, then a smattering of road games until they close with a brutal 3 game stretch: @SMC, Gonzaga, @LMU. Coach Dave Rose would probably be happy winning 2 of these games, but I honestly think they drop all three. SMC is always a tough out at home and I don’t think BYU will be able to knock them off. Gonzaga will have a couple uninteresting games against WCC bottom feeders around the 28^th, giving them time to focus and prepare for the revenge road trip to Provo (a game that I honestly think will be a blowout). Finally, a road game against LMU pits two prospective “#3” teams in the WCC against each other, and I give LMU the edge (though this game is really a toss-up).

BYU is a solid team that doesn’t have enough firepower to win the conference. They will definitely compete, and if Matt Carlino and Tyler Haws both make “the leap” and go from solid to great player… well, we might be singing a different tune in March. This will be a balanced team that will try not to beat itself while they wear down their opponents with solid play inside and a (hopefully) dynamic backcourt led by Matt Carlino. His play will determine their season. Personally, I don’t think they have the horses to run with Gonzaga or SMC, but I do think that their home court advantage and ability to outplay the middle and lower tier of the WCC will net them at least 4^th, and more likely 3^rd, in the conference. They’ll be battling LMU for 3^rd in the regular season standings, while they hope that Haws, Carlino, and Davies can get a rhythm going for a run in the WCC tournament.